Article: Gref named the fundamental exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar
Source: https://ru.investing.com/news/forex-news/article-2316113
Context:
"Somewhere in the area of these figures, the ruble should be, well, 90 plus or minus. We don't expect him to go anywhere far from these levels. In general, we forecast a stable situation by the end of the year," the head of the bank said at a press conference.
What is meant - in simple words
Based on the data of the fundamental analysis conducted over the past six months (the pace of implementation of import substitution programs, the balance of payments, prices and volumes of oil production, the geopolitical situation), including the reaction of the ruble to the attempt to transfer the exchange rate system to market rails, which the national economy so requests, and the resulting increase in the dollar over 100 rubles for $ 1, these words of the head of Sberbank German Gref can be reformulated as follows:
«We«will nail» the dollar to the level of 90 rubles for one «green» by the end of the year, well, give or take the 1st quarter of 2024 (before the elections), and then you want, you don't want, you'll have to let go».
Frankly speaking, there is absolutely no great optimism in skipping - should, somewhere, plus or minus, somewhere. There are no concrete arguments and prerequisites yet, due to which this can be achieved, even in the long term, in the current situation, except for "draining" gold reserves to maintain the ruble exchange rate, which is now happening.
The usual populism.