Excessive wishful thinking will not lead to anything good. This is when prices are artificially frozen, and wages are unreasonably rising, which creates economically unfavorable working conditions for businesses.
The real sector continues to work in such conditions, simply providing a transfer hidden losses on its illiquid assets (balance sheet), and the subsequent "spent" funds are renewable through a new batch of loans.
Now banks provide money supply to those who, according to all the canons of assessing their solvency, should simply be eliminated from the lender's loan portfolio. But in the end, the opposite happens - the build-up of bank assets through lending to high-risk business areas.
"The effect of a rate above 20% will not be felt by the real sector immediately, but after the banks tell them to stop lending to inefficient businesses, which now only exist to ensure a GDP of incomprehensible quality.
Concerns of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation about the hidden overpriced inflation they are fully justified, which those who criticize him do not understand. The fact that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation did not raise the rate today does not mean that it cannot make the 2nd gop at the next meeting. A big role here, of course, was played by criticism of the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, not common sense.
Obviously, the dollar exchange rate will continue to rise until a favorable economic environment is created in the economy to replenish the revenue side of the budget, which can easily cover the growing costs.
The devaluation of the ruble against the dollar from a relatively stable exchange rate of 70 rubles to 105 rubles is the first experimental step of the Central Bank, on the basis of which, according to the economics of the subsequent reporting period, the next conclusions of the Central Bank on devaluation policy will be made.
In addition, the dynamics of oil is systematically moving in the wrong direction, which, of course, would be desirable to maintain the ruble.There's not much optimism yet.
