Today, the determining factor for the dollar exchange rate is the price of oil and the physical volume of its sale, from which the revenue part of the Federal budget of the Russian Federation is directly determined.
Oil price dynamics - 2021-2024
In 2021-2022, a stable exchange rate of 73 RUB per $ and an average oil price of 72 $ determined a balanced economy and an acceptable level of budget income for the Russian Federation.
Since 2022, the artificially repaid price of the dollar has been supported by a high oil price of more than $100. However, trade restrictions and increased budget expenditures have brought it to a new level of 90 RUB per $.
And now, cancellation of clearing on dollar transactions (sanctions on MICEX) contributed to the fact that the exchange rate system passed directly into the hands of the Central Bank of the Republic of Belarus (to control the interbank market).
Where will the course go under the current conditions?
From a logical point of view, the strengthening of the ruble relative to already balanced trade relations in 2022-2023 with foreign markets by the price factor, at a fixed rate of 89 RUB per $, is an economic disruption for the Russian Federation. Plus increased budget expenditures (budget deficit) and uncertainty with business activity in China and India (which determines the demand for commodity the surplus of the Russian Federation), taking into account current trends in global geopolitics, does not give grounds for further strengthening of the ruble.
From my point of view, the exchange rate will be in the range of 90-95 RUB at an oil price of 80-85 $. Everything in the future will correlate with oil price and volumes. Prospects for strengthening the ruble are weak at the moment.
