Recently, against the background of global financial instability, primarily related to inflation in the United States and military operations in Ukraine, many have begun to talk about de-dollarization, due to the fact that all the sins of the so-called instant drop in the solvency of national economies lie on the green.
And against this background, everyone started talking about the fact that nobody needs the dollar, it will not be, everyone will switch to calculations with the national monetary unit or as an alternative to the Chinese yuan.
What I would like to note about this.
It is necessary to understand four simple truths:
- These statements are interpreted mainly only by those countries against which American and Western sanctions have been imposed. The opinion of the other world is not as categorical as, for example, Russia and Belarus.
- In order for this circumstance to be realized, it is necessary for key trading players all over the world to give up all their dollar assets in favor of settlement with another currency.
It is unlikely that any country will want to part with all this unbearably acquired capital for free.
And even if they have a certain desire, time is needed for the gradual transfer of the dollar into other forms of settlement assets. Moreover, it is necessary to take into account that all the world's obligations (of one country to another) are formed to a greater extent in "green", and these are trillions of American dollars. - The Chinese yuan is not a panacea. Both the dollar and the yuan have a centralized management system, that is, they are regulated by their own authorities in the interests of their own economies.
- The current convertibility of the Chinese yuan, in comparison with the US dollar, is small (the ability to exchange for the national currency, both in paper form and non-cash), which confirms its low liquidity.
Just estimate the share of the US dollar, euro, Chinese yuan and Russian ruble in the total volume of international payments (SWIFT) and their dynamics.
Currency | Current share (according to data from 2020-2021) | Share of the previous period (according to 2018-2019 data) |
US Dollar | 43.58% | 42.63% |
Euro | 36.75% | 36.74% |
Japanese Yen | 4.10% | 4.08% |
British Pound | 3.96% | 4.14% |
Canadian Dollar | 2.07% | 2.07% |
Australian Dollar | 1.40% | 1.40% |
Chinese Yuan | 1.22% | 1.24% |
Swiss Franc | 1.17% | 1.78% |
Hong Kong Dollar | 0.98% | 0.94% |
Swedish Krona | 0.63% | 0.62% |
Norwegian Krone | 0.52% | 0.51% |
Singapore Dollar | 0.48% | 0.40% |
Danish Krona | 0.43% | 0.36% |
Mexican Peso | 0.38% | 0.43% |
New Zealand Dollar | 0.34% | 0.34% |
Polish zloty | 0.32% | 0.36% |
Russian Ruble | 0.26% | 0.26% |
Czech Crown | 0.22% | 0.19% |
South African rand | 0.21% | 0.23% |
Hungarian Forint | 0.17% | - |
Are there any chances for someone to change this structure?
What experts say about this
Expert opinion of the general producer of RBC investments that the Chinese yuan is the reserve currency of the future.
Of course, the gradual transition in the international settlements of Russia, Belarus and China to the yuan will shake the US dollar a little, but we think it will be insignificant in the next five years.
Chinese yuan instead of the US dollar – expert opinion – Something like that!