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How much will the crypt fall – where is the bottom: we compare the history of gold with bitcoin (BTC)

How much will the crypt fall – where is the bottom: we compare the history of gold with bitcoin (BTC)

Recently, many crypto investors have been interested in the question of how much the crypto can sink in its price as much as possible in a falling (bearish) market.

Some analysts generally promise bitcoin a complete reset !

Recall that bitcoin and all its derivatives (altcoins) are high-risk types of assets, i.e. they do not give full confidence to the investor that they will be able to maintain their value for a long period of time.

Fundamental, the game of manipulators and, as a consequence, frenzied volatility, which carries high risks with respect to this type of asset, brings a certain nervousness to everyone who owns these coins.

Cryptocurrency has already firmly entered the sphere of finance and stock trading, has global liquidity and has an undeniable value associated with optimizing the system of public relations, bringing them to a completely new level. Also, their number is also limited. Of course, not all types of crypts fall under all these criteria, but nevertheless …

There is, for example, gold, too, a high-risk asset, liquid, traded on the stock exchange, valuable due to its best physical and chemical properties and it is not enough.

In fact, the identity and certain parallel of bitcoin with physical gold on the "face".

Let's evaluate the current and past value of gold, relative to its minimum and maximum thresholds over the past 40 years, and compare it with BTC (bitcoin).

how much gold has fallen in price throughout history - analysis of lows and highs

Gold reached its maximum price of $2,031 per ounce in August 2020. The minimum value at which the support level was formed was $1,122. The period of volatility is 12 years, which is even longer than the period of existence of bitcoin itself.

Gold still reached the lowest price values at $ 250 more than 20 years ago.

Let's pay attention to the dynamics of changes in the Fed's discount rate on the US dollar over the same period.

trend change in the Fed discount rate over the past years

It can be seen that over the past 12 years, it was during its maximum level of 2.5 percentage points (2018-2019), that the price of gold was adjusted to $1,122.

Full correlation of the Fed rate with the price of gold.

Everything similar is happening now in relation to BTC.

how much can bitcoin crypto analysis (BTC) fall

If we project this trend on the value of the crypt, in particular bitcoin, then we can judge that its minimum threshold values are in the region of $30, 000, with a maximum of $61, 310 in October 2021 (an estimate within the Fed discount rate of up to 2.5 percentage points for a given period of 12 years).

Therefore, it can be assumed that bitcoin is already in the area of its logical minimum.

If the Fed does not solve all its tasks to the level of the interest rate of 2.5, it is possible to expect BTC to fall to the level of $7,000.

How much the crypt will fall – where is the bottom: we compare the history of gold with bitcoin (BTC) - Something like that!

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