Over the past 2 weeks, the price of Brent crude oil has shown a rapid increase, by more than 15% (from $ 73 to $ 85 per barrel). And at the same time, oddly enough, the Russian ruble continues to demonstrate its gradual decline - an important support level of 80 RUB for 1 US dollar is being tested.
Classical scheme dependence of the dollar price on oil for countries where the gross national budget in It is mainly formed at the expense of export earnings, which is absolutely the opposite of today's trend.
Why is this happening ?
On Sunday, April 2, the countries that are part of the OPEC oil cartel decided to reduce oil production by 1.65 million barrels per day. This volume also includes a decrease in the production of the Russian oil industry by 0.5 million.
The decision was made against the backdrop of falling oil due to fears of a projected global recession.
Due to the decrease in the volume of Russian oil production, it is also possible to reduce the price discount on the volumes it sells to China and India. However, the drop in volumes and the rise in prices are inherently compensated by one another, and it is unlikely that this will somehow affect the increase in total budget revenues from the oil industry in comparison with the previous months of this year.
In addition, according to the Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Anton Siluanov, at the end of March, the budget revenues of the Russian Federation amounted to 3.5 trillion.RUB, and expenses 7.5 trillion RUB. I.e. current deficitorder 4 trillionRUB.
As previously noted, the total volume of budget deficit of the Russian Federation for the whole of 2023 is 2.9 trillion.RUB.
The urgency of the issue of reducing the budget deficit forces the monetary authorities of the Russian Federation to gradually devalue the ruble, despite the fact that the price of oil is growing in the current conditions.
Also, «heats up» this dynamic (oil price growth), increase in China's business activity, including related to the increase in trade turnover with the Russian Federation, against the background of falling Western demand.
Everything else is affected by all the same factors as:
- geopolitics
- export decline
- import growth
Oil has increased in price by 15% - the ruble has fallen: why is it so somehow!
