It would seem that against the background of the ongoing devaluation The Russian ruble (RUB) to the US dollar (USD) and the binding of the Belarusian unit (BYN) to the Russian ruble, BYN had to maintain this proportional dependence.
Over the year, USD has grown from 53 RUB to 88 RUB (by 68%), and it would be logical to see such a dependence - USD from 2.6 BYN to 4.3 BYN.
But everything happens a little bit the other way around.
As we can see over the year, with the depreciation of RUB to USD by 68%, BYN decreased to the American by only 18%, while strengthening itself in relation to RUB by 29%.
Why did this happen!
Both Russia and Belarus have certain difficulties in solving the issues of their budget deficits, in conditions of limited trade relations due to sanctions.
If for the Russian Federation the reduction budget deficitstill lies in devaluation of the Russian ruble against the dollar, because even under sanctions in the presence of parallel imports, price competitiveness Russian goods and payments for them still depend on the dollar, then this is not so important for the Republic of Belarus.
That is, the trade turnover of the Russian Federation mainly depends on foreign markets, and the Republic of Belarus mainly on the Russian market.
The lack of a certain parity in the devaluation of its monetary units to the currencies of unfriendly countries, led to an increase in the value of Belarusian goods relative to the Russian ruble. That is, the Russian market now has to pay almost 30% more of its money for the same volume of Belarusian products.
Such an imbalance in exchange rate policy did not occur due to any changes in the economic processes of the two countries, but is related only to the difficulties of the Russian Federation itself in its budget policy and the extraordinary decisions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation related to the withdrawal of foreign capital/ currency from the country, which directly affected the value of the Russian ruble itself, and not the Belarusian one.
Of course, it was possible to maintain this parity in the exchange rate ratio, but frankly speaking, Belarusian products had already been undervalued relative to the Russian ruble.
In a simple way - the Russian consumer in the RB market, from the point of view of his solvency, I felt much more comfortable than Belarusian in the Russian market.
In conditions of weak BYN to RUB, to a greater extent, 2022 was largely economically successful for Belarus in terms of almost 100% of trade turnover with the Russian Federation.
For reference:
On 01.07.2021, the RUB rate (per 100 units) was equal to 3,4707 BYN, which practically corresponds to the current situation. I.e., the level of solvency of the Russian buyer for Belarusian goods/services returned to the level of 2021, and no more. A cheap BYN in 2022 and the transfer of almost all the volumes of the RB to the Russian Federation, made it possible to ensure a good economy of the first in the face of sanctions.
In conditions of limited trade in Russia, one could say that there is not much choice (due to limited imports) from whom to replenish their needs, but taking into account the expansion of the market in the East Asian direction., with its price attractiveness, it is necessary for the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus to be constantly on the alert; in revising its monetary policy in order not to lose its volumes on the Russian market in these conditions and to offset the negative consequences for the budget of the Republic of Belarus.
If these circumstances have a negative impact on the economic processes in Belarus (Russia will abandon the goods of the Republic of Belarus in favor of Chinese, for example), it is possible that the above-mentioned parity in exchange rates may return to the previous course. Time will tell!
Why did the Belarusian ruble strengthen against the Russian ruble and not significantly fall against the dollar Somehow!