The Central Bank of Russia continues to take regular reinsurance measures against inflation expectations and at the next, ninth and final meeting this year raises the discount rate to 16%.
There is no doubt that consumer activity of the population in almost all sectors of the economy will fall in 2024. Loans are becoming more expensive, which means everything business costs related to financing their activities they will be transferred through the price to the buyer.
Today, the government is betting not on spending by the population, but on increasing their savings by increasing the attractiveness of the Russian ruble and thereby removing excessive liquidity from the economy. The inflation target is 4% in 2024.
Although the regulator does not particularly see any dangerous trends in the economy with this monetary policy, it still estimates the rate level of 20% as critical for it.
Today the delta between the rate and current inflation in the Russian Federation is practically the highest in the world, which indicates high price risks in the conditions of the economy in market conditions. No one is going to burn gold and foreign exchange reserves indefinitely to maintain the exchange rate.
In the current conditions, the real estate and automotive sectors will be particularly affected, since the benefits of these industries are directly linked to lending to their potential customers.
It will no longer be reasonable to take out new loans - it will be expensive, and for current (already taken) you will have to give a significant part of your income, due to which there will be less money left for other expenses.
The real sector will have to lower prices, perhaps even to the detriment of its economy.
To turn the situation in a different direction, it is necessary to get rid of currency dependence, while self-supporting its economy is currently dependent on import-dependent goods. Unfortunately, so far the oil industry cannot provide a solution to all the accumulated financial and economic problems in the country.
