The main reason for the current collapse of global stock markets is the high discount rate of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS), which the US regulator kept at the same level at the last meeting. The Fed has been keeping the rate at the level set since July 2023. This is happening against the background of a growing unemployment rate: in July it increased to 4.3% against 4.1% in the previous month, indicating a noticeable slowdown in the pace of hiring and economic activity.
However, the problem is not only in the high interest rate, but also in its duration. The American economy is in conditions of long-term stability, which creates additional risks. Investors are beginning to fear that the United States may face a hard landing, which portends a significant slowdown in economic growth.
The fall in stock prices in the United States has already affected the Japanese and Chinese markets, especially those countries that have close trade and economic ties with the United States. The global integration of the economy makes it sensitive to changes in the world's largest economy. The decline in economic activity in the United States has a negative impact on the whole world, creating a chain reaction in the financial systems of other countries.
As for the Russian economy, it seems to be in standby mode. The depreciation of the dollar against the ruble is currently due primarily to the fall of the dollar on the world market, and not to Russia's internal economic factors. This reflects the overall dynamics of global currency markets and the impact of events in the United States.
The consequences of the recession in the United States can be dangerous; many experts recall the crisis of 2008, when the global economy experienced a serious recession. Then the collapse of the American financial sector caused a chain reaction that affected the economies of countries around the world. Today we are seeing similar alarming signals, and investors are cautiously looking to the future, waiting for how events will develop further.