The key link in the purchase and sale of dollars and euros on the Moscow Stock Exchange is the NCC (national clearing center).
The blocking sanctions imposed by the US Treasury since 06/12/2024 mean that American correspondent banks are prohibited from making settlements with the NCC. I.e., the NCC will be cut off from the international dollar system, which will lead to the blocking of transactions involving at least one US resident.
That is, persons who are physically located or legally registered in the United States and pay taxes in this country are prohibited from interacting with persons and companies on the SDN list (sanctions list). Violation of this prohibition may lead to the inclusion of the violator in the same list.
The main problem for the Moscow Exchange now is more that significant foreign currency balances of its clients may hang on NCC correspondent accounts in US banks.
In fact, the NCC can get rid of the American cor.accounts and carry out the purchase and sale of dollars at the level of its settlement system. But how well has this mechanism been worked out today, is that a question?
And another disadvantage is that, after all, the potential for buying dollar liquidity in the global market will definitely be reduced. And the dollar is still on the world stage, after all, has considerable demand.
Now the exchange rate algorithm has been completely transferred to the hands of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. We will see where he stops in the near future.
It is quite possible that there will be two exchange rates:
- The first one is under which economically important export-import transactions of the Russian Federation in foreign markets will be carried out. Based on this course, the price competitiveness of Russia's food surpluses will be determined.
- The second one is for the population. There is a high probability of a large spread between the purchase and sale of currency due to possibly high speculative appetites on the part of the banking sector of the Russian Federation. If such a scenario is realized, the possibility of a black market is not excluded.
Many people are now wondering what to do with dollars.
I don't think it's worth rushing to drain all your dollar savings, who have such, right now. As a last resort, at any time they will be able to buy goods abroad, and possibly much cheaper than on the domestic market, if the ruble exchange rate is unreasonably inflated.
