China gets hydrocarbons for next to nothing, but we get the same things as before, only made in China.
That's the real strategy today. And that's the point.
And now let's figure out why the devaluation of the ruble in this logic does not seem to be necessary.
Devaluation is primarily aimed at addressing budget deficits for export-oriented countries in in conditions of an inefficiently operating economy, that is, when a competitive price (lower than competitors) cannot be achieved by increasing the scale of production.
You know, the more we produce and sell, the lower the price.
If this does not work and the unprofitability of the real sector manifests itself, then the most effective and logically correct option is to devalue your national currency in order to reduce foreign exchange prices for your products at current costs and make them more attractive to foreign markets.
It would seem so, and it should have happened a long time ago against the background of what is happening.
But at some point, an idea came up that, it seems to me, is still working at 100%.
Maybe it's just more profitable to buy cheap from abroad (with an expensive ruble) and provide for yourself - to feed, clothe and cover other needs - than to sell there expensively (which is inefficient because no one will buy), especially in conditions of sanctions and declining efficiency of domestic production.
Although exports are stagnating due to this decision, it is possible to buy cheap imports. Well, if we can't provide for ourselves, then China will help, and almost all needs are covered by purchases by almost 100%.
That is, given the problems with personnel, export sanctions and falling sales volumes of our own productions, maybe this is an option.
And it's unrealistic to compete on price with China, given that, in fact, the main market is only open there.
Then what's the point of producing by ourselves if you can just give them oil and gas for processing? In fact, the work is based on toll-free raw materials.
But in that case, what's the point of an import substitution program, when import is now, in fact, a priority and becoming a development strategy?
And what will people be doing in this system? Or will unemployment be covered somehow?
Or maybe the Russian Federation will just eventually enter China's orbit and become completely dependent on it - also an option.
Well, just in case: China still needs the dollar, and it will observe market exchange rate parity to maintain the price competitiveness of its products in trade with the United States, which has a trade turnover with China more than five times higher than with Russia.
It seems that Russia is getting on a rather fast track in terms of its independence from China and the degradation of its own economy.
What kind of growth then GDP can we talk about - at the expense of what?
It's getting harder to understand.
And what will happen when this fairy tale ends?
