A warm wind blew from America amid the preliminary talks between the presidents of the United States and Russia.
This is a positive development for the Russian Federation in terms of the potential lifting of sanctions in the near future. But how will this affect the ruble-dollar exchange rate?
When making our forecasts, we should not forget one true point: business activity in the real sector of Russia can increase only in those sectors that do not pose a threat to the US economy. Unfortunately, the oil and gas industry is not one of them.
Without any hints, Trump clearly emphasized the need to lower prices for hydrocarbons in order to implement his economic strategy. His slogan "Storms, baby, storms" is also related to this. For the Russian Federation, oil and gas are still key to the budget and to support the exchange rate of the national currency.
And the fact that the price of hydrocarbons should decrease is, from the point of view of common sense, a completely economically justified step for the development of the global economy, because the price of any product consumed by mankind largely includes the energy part of the costs, on which inflation depends to a greater extent (rising prices for goods/services).
And nothing is clear about the frozen gold reserves of the Russian Federation yet.
Therefore, complain about the strengthening of the ruble in the near future, I think, should not be, especially given the high defense costs and the need to restore the annexed territories.
The current strengthening of the ruble should be considered as a result of market volatility caused only by positive rumors, and not as a reflection of real economic growth indicators.
