In the light of official growth data inflationin the United States, which slowed from 2.9% to 2.5% in August, there is a change in economic expectations. At the same time, the actual value of inflation turned out to be lower than the projected 2.6% at the annual level. On a monthly basis, the results were in line with expectations, recording an increase of 0.2%.
Special attention should be paid to the basic consumer price index (CPI), which does not take into account volatile elements such as food and energy. It amounted to 3.2%, which is in line with forecasts, but on a monthly basis there is a slight increase to 0.3%, exceeding initial expectations.
In response to these data, market expectations regarding the possible easing of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) at the next meeting have changed. The probability of a 0.5% reduction in the key interest rate decreased from 30% to 15%, indicating growing confidence that the Fed can maintain its current policy, given the dynamics of inflation.
On the stock market, the dollar, which was in a slight drawdown (-0.2%) on the eve of the publication of the data, quickly strengthened, returning to the level of about 101.65. This confirms that investors are responding to positive economic trends, restoring confidence in the dollar.
Gold, on the contrary, showed negative dynamics, falling from intraday highs of $2,557 per ounce to about $2,535, which means a loss of about 0.3% per day. This trend demonstrates a correction in the precious metals market associated with the strengthening of the dollar and changes in inflation indicators.
Slowing down inflation in the United States creates prerequisites for maintaining the current monetary policy of the Fed, which has a positive effect on the dollar, but puts pressure on gold, changing its market dynamics. To analyze further trends, it is important to monitor the following inflation data and the Fed's decisions, which may significantly affect the economic situation in the country.
