Over the past 24 hours, the dollar has fallen by more than 1%. And over the past month, the dynamics of the dollar exchange rate has been downward (from 90 RUB to 86 RUB). The ruble is strengthening.
And this is against the background of slightly sagging oil (from $ 85 to $ 81) and high current inflation (12% year-on-year).
The strengthening of the ruble is now associated with the beginning of the tax week. But the main reason is the drop in imports.
With rising inflation, imports fall (for an import-dependent country) This is not a good phenomenon.
The drop in imports indicates a drop in the production potential of the country's real sector, which is directly reflected in the fall in GDP (lack of raw materials for domestic production). Which already seems to be manifested in the form of an increase in inflation. And the dollar, in this case, has nothing to do with it, unlike in previous years (when prices for imported goods provoked an increase in domestic ones).
To be richer, you need to produce and sell more. And when the volume of the real product subsides, and the amount of money in the economy is not falling (on the contrary, it is growing), then it is pointless to ask questions from where inflation.
The key today for the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, when forming the exchange rate, is not so much the country's balance of payments for export-import operations, as the answer to the question: - What will be the competitive price of final products for the export market of the Russian Federation, which underlies the formed tax base and the deficit-free budget of the state.
