The Central Bank of Russia under the leadership of Elvira Nabiullina confirms its determination to return inflation to the target level of 4%. This is necessary to ensure the stability of the economy and protect the savings of citizens.
Price pressure
High price pressure remains in the country, with stable inflation rates in the range of 6.0-8.0%. This causes great concern to the regulator due to the fact that these levels are unacceptable for economic stability.
Forecast update
In light of the latest data, the July forecast for inflation of 6.5-7.0% is likely to be revised. This indicates the need for careful monitoring and possible adjustments in monetary policy.
Inflation expectations
One of the main problems is the growing inflation expectations, which prevent the formation of a disinflationary trend. Sustained expectations can make efforts to reduce inflation more difficult.
Uneven growth
The slowdown in economic growth in the country is associated with an imbalance between supply and demand, which is reflected in increased inflation. The labor market remains a key constraint for increasing production.
The domestic market
The domestic supply is limited not only by problems with logistics and calculations, but also by a decrease in oil production under OPEC agreements. At the same time, domestic demand continues to remain high despite the slowdown.
Business climate indicator
In September, the business climate indicator was in negative territory for the first time, which indicates a slowdown in economic activity and a loss of confidence among entrepreneurs.
Financial conditions
The lending market reacted to expectations of a change in the key rate, with a slowdown in growth in the retail lending segment, despite the continued growth of corporate lending.
Global trends
The slowdown in the global economy and falling oil prices are creating pro-inflationary pressures. For Russia, this indicates possible difficulties with exports and the weakening of the ruble.
Inflation risks
There are risks of exhaustion of production capacity and labor, which can lead to higher prices without increasing production. Geopolitical pressure also poses a significant risk to the economy.
Budget policy
Changes in the budget structure, the rate of normalization and the deficit can significantly affect economic demand and will require adjustments in forecasts.
The goal is 4%
The 4% inflation target is critical to protect citizens' savings, the availability of long-term loans and the stability of the ruble exchange rate. High inflation complicates price management and creates the danger of a transition to double-digit inflation.
Determination of the Central Bank
The Bank of Russia will continue to maintain tight monetary conditions and is ready to raise the key rate if necessary to ensure the achievement of the inflation target.