In 2020, at the peak of COVID-19, the increase in the dollar supply due to the Fed's printing press amounted to about 6 trillion dollars, which contributed to an increase in inflation in the United States to 9%. This, among other things, indicates that the money was not invested in the real sector to a greater extent, but was consumed (spent on food and other short-term inventory).
The increase in capitalization of the global stock market from 2020 to 2024 amounted to about $28 trillion (from $80 trillion to $108 trillion). The growth of the cryptocurrency market over the same period amounted to $3.5 trillion (from $0.2 trillion to $3.7 trillion).
Thus, we can evaluate this situation as follows.
Since US dollars are the main medium of exchange for stocks and other financial instruments internationally, all their printed gains in the early years of the pandemic, after a peak in consumer spending (after a spike in inflation), were aimed at speculation. That is, we have an increase in dollar liquidity of approximately $6 trillion over 4 years, and an increase in the value of speculative instruments (funds + crypt) for $31.5 trillion.
It turns out that in this scenario, all the printed surpluses of dollars have already been absorbed by these markets, and the rest of the accumulation of $25 trillion (31.5 - 6) has already been realized at the expense of the savings of both the population and companies, corporations and other financial institutions, which in itself contributed to a decrease in inflation, as well as somethe share of the Fed's high discount rate (5.5%) helped in this.
As it seems, these are all prerequisites for the fact that inflation in the United States will fall, taking into account the continued outflow of fiat dollars in this direction (everyone wants X's). And this will happen as long as society retains some resources to eat, dress, and live more or less like a human being. And it will be time-Hours for the entire global economy.
When the resource of the real sector is exhausted, dollars will be returned from the markets to the system. But in this scenario, when the consumption resource is exhausted, it will be a disaster. Simply put, there will be money, but no goods. And this, by the way, can happen all at once, right now, if there is a sharp outflow of money back, everyone will start dumping stocks, indices, futures, BTC in order to get their dollars back.
This will be a significant blow to the US economic system, which, I think, will not be allowed in the near future. And it is the crypto market that will help keep huge surpluses of dollar liquidity, mainly in BTC (bitcoin).
And one more thing to understand.
When we try to speculate on the crypt, we give dollars, and then we get USDT or USDC, and only then we exchange them for cryptotokens that are interesting to us. Then we wait for their growth, we fix profits in digital dollars (USDT/USDC), and in order to get back to eating, so to speak, we need to withdraw everything back along the same chain: crypta - USDT/USDC - fiat dollar. But USDT/USDC is already, in fact, a fully controlled digital asset by the US monetary system, and they can completely lock it up with a negative layout, which is a certain risk in this entire system.
In the meantime, the party continues, and even taking into account the fact that such a miracle as the TRUMP memotoken was born.
I believe that the level of its capitalization will directly indicate the rating of the US president in the global community in the long term. So to speak, it will fall - they will warm up. For comparison, such a meme by Elon Musk as DOGE. Is Trump really worse than Elon (I didn't say that). Either the memes all fall to the bench, or a rocket, so to speak.
We'll wait and see. It's a meme, but the idea seems to be the same here.