To begin with, let's ask ourselves the question: why is synchronicity in devaluation of the Russian and Belarusian ruble is it being violated?
This is from the opera, why the Russian ruble has sunk more to dollar than Belarusian. How can this be, given the almost complete dependence of the Belarusian trade turnover on the Russian market, especially under the conditions of sanctions?
You just need to understand that any deviation in the synchronicity of the depreciation of the Russian and Belarusian rubles against the dollar will affect the economic losses or gains of one of the two sides - Russia or Belarus.
As can be seen over the last month (from 1.11.2024), the Russian ruble sank more against the dollar (by 12.5% - from 97.44RUB to 109.58 RUB) than the Belarusian ruble (by 8.4% - from 3.3162 BYN to 3.5951 BYN).
Accordingly, the Belarusian monetary unit strengthened against the Russian one by 4% (from 29.32 RUB to 30.48 RUB), which will lead in the near future to the fact that all Belarusian goods, both in the Russian Federation and in the Republic of Belarus itself, will become more expensive for the Russian consumer.
How much do Belarusian goods imitate for Russians?
Belarusian products are not 100% produced at the expense of Russian raw materials. The smaller the share of Russian in the Belarusian product (in its cost), the closer the price increase for it is to this value of 4%. Conversely, if the share of Russian raw materials prevails in Belarusian processing, then the growth will be smaller.
If suddenly the Russian consumer does not like this, and he starts switching to another manufacturer, for example, sees a price alternative in Chinese goods, then the Belarusian side will still have to adhere to the specified synchronization (full binding of BYN to RUB) in order not to lose in volume. And the loss in volume may be more sensitive for the national economy than playing with the price.
Therefore, it is highly likely that this deviation in the devaluation synchronicity is a temporary phenomenon, more based on the experimental approach of the monetary system RB, and not on the fact that some are better than others.
There has been no market process in the exchange rate system for a long time. Everything is purely based on supporting the interests of their state budgets and public sentiment.
A similar approach associated with artificially reducing or increasing the price competitiveness of their goods extends to other countries of the post-Soviet space.
As you can see, everything is flexible in the economy. You can earn at the expense of price, or you can lose at the expense of volume, and exchange rate policy plays an important role here.
