According to the consumer price index (CPI) in the United States, as of 01/15/2025, there is still a consensus (fact - 2.9%, forecast - 2.9%, prev. - 2.7%), which gives the Fed neutrality on further actions at the key rate. The markets have ambiguously assessed this data. Indices and funds remained almost at the same level (minimal volatility), cryptocurrencies are growing.
The price of oil has increased and reached the level of $80, due to the fact that the Biden administration last Friday imposed the most devastating sanctions on possible trade deals with Russian oil by any Western power.
How are the possibilities for lifting sanctions against Russia assessed under the Trump administration?
Excerpt according to Bloomberg:
For example, Scott Bessent, Donald Trump's nominee for Treasury secretary, said this Thursday, January 16, that he supports tougher sanctions against the Russian oil industry in order to end the war in Ukraine.
"I will 100% support the tightening of sanctions, especially against large Russian oil companies," Scott Bessent said during a hearing in the Senate Committee.
"I think the sanctions weren't tough enough," Bessent said of the efforts, adding that he suspects the Biden administration was afraid of higher energy prices in the United States during the election race and therefore did not want to impose tougher sanctions.
From myself
In terms of a tight WPC high oil price, which is the basis of the cost in any pricing system of the real sector will only contribute to an increase in prices for final products, which already contradicts itself. This is just a short-term trend, which is not justified by anything relative to the long-term downward trend that has already been formed.
It seems that the United States will not allow it to be maintained at this level for a long time, with all its ambitious plans for its economy. Moreover, China, taking into account the tariff restrictions imposed by the United States, has nothing to boast about yet.
Although the market notes an increase in hydrocarbon prices, this fact will not bring economic positivity to the real sector of the Russian Federation.
When I exchange a dollar for another asset and in large quantities, it usually helps to reduce the price of $ at the global level, as the increase in dollars in the system increases and dollar inflation accelerates.
What is happening on the crypto market now? The daily increase in the capitalization of cryptocurrencies with today's bullish trend is about $ 50 billion per day, and at the same time, the dollar thrown onto the market does not affect the US economy in any way (inflation does not increase), which indicates that the released dollars are deposited either on exchanges or are reserved in some kind of buffer systems. And with a higher degree of probability, I assume that these are either USDT or tokenized dollars, which cannot be exchanged for goods relative to the fiat dollar today.
As already noted earlier, this It is a very convenient tool for the United States to regulate its monetary policy.