On the basis of what do I determine the growth potential of the crypt?
In my opinion, today statistical analysis methods and their derivative figures, such as "head with shoulders" or "legs with horns", etc., do not represent a reliable tool for determining an investment strategy in the crypto market.
For a highly volatile market, where the price of coins is determined to a greater extent by the behavior of a limited number of large players (whales), it is almost impossible to predict where it will go next. You can, of course, play scalping and with every success start teaching others how to make money on the crypt, and with any drain just lose touch with the outside world until better times.
When this market becomes popular among the masses of the population and the real sector, and the situation will resemble the situation, as, for example, now in the stock market, where profit-taking often leads to a pullback to the levels of stop losses, after which a systematic growth continues in accordance with a long-term trend based on fundamental data, and not on such dips or spikes in the nth amount X's, then maybe statistics can help.
The priority in the analysis of the crypto market, I think, should now be based only on fundamental things, on the basis of which one can only assume what will happen next, based on data on the American, Chinese economy and other geopolitical events in the world. Play for luck with the definition of support and resistance levels in a high-risk and volatile market - it's a bad idea.
But holding (long-term storage), taking into account the prospects of blockchain technology, is yes.
For me, for example, the following is important in crypto investments:
- What does the coin chart look like over the past 5 years in the context of various macroeconomic events.
- Does the market perceive this coin not as something random - there have been peak rises more than once relative to the previous ones. At the same time, there is a fairly large margin of safety from today's point (potential x-s) when returning to the upper levels.
- Who are the developers, how long have they been in the topic and what ideas they are hatching - fork procedures.
- As well as an assessment of the potential attitude of the authorities and the world towards it regarding the competitive field of existing cryptotransactional exchange mechanisms between trading entities.
