I could still believe in a reasonable ruble strengthening if the domestic economy were really based on the principles of self-sufficiency.
That is, if the real sector were provided with all the necessary resources, components and semi-finished products produced domestically. But there is no such thing.
Therefore, I do not understand the delight of some propaganda media outlets, which are noticeably happy to comment on the "fall of the dollar."
The point is not that the dollar has suddenly become weak.
The need for the dollar and other "unfriendly" currencies within the country is decreasing for other reasons:
- yes, due to the redistribution of currency flows towards the Chinese yuan;
- And this is also because the United States itself (represented by the same Trump) is playing with the dollar in the interests of its own economy.
But here's the key point
If the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus are demonstratively "abandoning" the dollar, then China and India are not going to abandon it at all.
And this is logical: their trade turnover with the United States is many times greater than with the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus combined, and their economic dependence on the United States is much higher than on the so-called "friendly" partners.
This is clearly visible in the geopolitical arena.
China and India are behaving as cautiously as possible: they do not get into conflicts, do not escalate the situation, more often take a neutral position and "abstain".
This implies the following point
The whole scheme of increasing trade turnover with China and India in the context of the strengthening of the ruble inevitably requires separate interstate agreements.
Namely, sales of Russian products in the southeastern direction at serious discounts, that is, at reduced prices in rubles.
And here it is important to understand that such a scheme is economically unprofitable for either the Russian Federation or the Republic of Belarus.
It is beneficial specifically to China and India, which receive raw materials and goods at virtually bargain prices and increase their stocks.
Therefore, I do not understand what joy and rejoicing are here.
I also do not believe that the United States will seriously weaken on the world stage in the foreseeable future.
As you can see, they continue to dictate the rules of the game in the global economy.
And it is at least naive to expect the dollar as the global monetary equivalent to give way to other currencies in the near future.
There is only one question left: how long will all these games last to the detriment of the domestic economy for the sake of a political course that is not supported by stable economic foundations.
In the net balance China and India find themselves on the same top as the United States due to price discounts, skewed trading conditions and continued access to the dollar system.
The consequences of such a policy will definitely affect the ruble exchange rate (if we want to live like people), but later - when current administrative measures stop holding it down.
The only question is how long the economy will be adjusted to political objectives.
